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A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach admonished him over not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were a sign or the reason for the side's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their opening six games, are somehow just three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.

Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, while the wins have stacked up.

According to the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have put together 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – yet right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, bent right inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.

“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those games.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football into the top corner week in, week out.

A Case for Belief

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still find their top level.

• The main striker could start scoring again.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Savoring the Moment

Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as a vital England player.

The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.