Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
